The price of Russian oil may fall below $50 per barrel.

The decline of the global economy due to Trump's trade war and oil production by OPEC+ countries is leading to a correction in oil price forecasts. If the forecasts are accurate, the price of Russian oil may fall below $50 per barrel.

Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase have provided the most pessimistic forecasts among investment banks. They expect the price of Brent oil to drop to $60-65 per barrel. According to Citigroup's forecast, the average price in the second and third quarters will be $60, while in the fourth quarter it will be $55 per barrel. JPMorgan does not foresee a recovery in prices even in the long term, predicting an average price of $61 in 2026 and a possible drop to $50 per barrel due to the easing of U.S. sanctions against Russia and Iran.

Oil traders also express their dissatisfaction with the volume of oil production both inside and outside of OPEC. They believe that Trump's policy is too loud and hinders the recovery of prices due to trade wars.

"The oil industry is drilling too much," said the chairman of the board of directors of one of the largest oil traders, Gunvor, at the energy conference in Houston. "Both inside and outside OPEC, production exceeds what is necessary."

In March, OPEC+ countries agreed to increase oil supplies to the global market starting in April. Analysts are already predicting a slowdown in the growth of the global economy due to Trump's chaos caused by imposing numerous tariffs on trading partners and responses to these restrictions. Uncertainty has become an additional negative factor undermining consumer and business confidence.

In this regard, Goldman Sachs has lowered its oil price forecast from the range of $70-85 to $65-80 per barrel. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America expect price fluctuations in the range of $65-70 per barrel in the second half of the year.

The price of Brent oil has decreased following the OPEC+ decision. Meanwhile, Russian Urals oil has also lost its value and has become a problem for the budget due to a discount of $15-16 per barrel. The decline in Urals price negatively impacts the financial plans of the Ministry of Finance, which was hoping for a price of $69.7 per barrel. If the price of Brent falls to $60 along with the sustained discount, Russian oil may cost around $45 per barrel.